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conomies in 2010 Rising federal deficits will be an upward influence on yields
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Only asset class not to confirm 2009 reflation trade Investment ideas: ? Short long duration US Treasuries (deteriorating balance sheet) and long immediate-term US investment grade corporate credit (improving balance sheet) ? Seek shorter Treasury duration
The great reflation trade of 2009 is still incomplete: Positive equities & negative Treasuries Chronology of Risk Inflation
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Equity Strategy, Bloomberg
20 Reference: 1. The RIC Report: 10 themes for 2010, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, 07 December 2009 2. A return to normality - 2010 Year Ahead Investment Outlook, Merrill Lynch Wealth Management, January 2010 3.The RIC Report: Japanification & bull markets BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, 10 August 2010
Past performance is not indicative of future performance
Strong corporate balance sheets lead to M&A Corporate profits/capex ratio vs yoy capex growth
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Corporate recession has led to massive cut in capex. Current high cash balances => strategic M&A
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Companies could also increase capital spending and dividends Investment ideas: ? Global industrials ? Equities within healthcare and tech sectors (easing credit constraints and pickup in M&A action) ? Merger arbitrage in alternative
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Equity Strategy, Bloomberg, Bureau of Economic Analysis
investments
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Avoid equities in autos and airlines (heavily indebted industries) 21
Reference: 1. The RIC Report: 10 themes for 2010, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, 07 December 2009
Past performance is not indicative of future performance
Strong household balance sheets in EM ? Mortgage loans as a % of GDP
The EM consumer is under-levered with high savings rates but consumer lending is underpenetrated (chart)
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Expecting a Chinese revaluation in the RMB to make 1.3 billion consumers around +5% richer in 2010
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Investment ideas: ? Long EM currencies vs USD ? US energy stocks, global energy majors &
Note: Most data end-2008. Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Equity Strategy, IMF IFS, Central Bank Data, OECD
mega-cap multinationals in DM ? Asian banks and consumer stocks
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Avoid discretionary spending of the developed market consumer
22 Reference: 1. The RIC Report: 10 themes for 2010, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, 07 December 2009
Past performance is not indicative of future performance
Active management favours stocks > sectors Stock correlations still above long-term average, but declined from 2008 highs
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Stock correlation has come down and this trend favours active > passive management Central banks’ quantitative easing last year has: => decreased volatility lower intra-sector stock correlation => =>
greater differentiation in asset price performance
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Investment ideas: ? ? ? Sell volatility Stock picking leading to “best of breed” basket Alpha strategies through actively managed funds
? Source: BofA Merrill Lynch US Quantitative Strategy
Avoid benchmark weightings and potentially some ETF’s
23 Reference: 1. The RIC Report: 10 themes for 2010, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, 07 December 2009
Past performance is not indicative of future performance
Asset Allocation for Global Investors Equities - 2010 year-end S&P500 target: 1,300 - MSCI ACWI target: 350 - Long equities in EM (secular) and EU (cyclical). Short Japan & US - Alternative investments – merger arbitrage & long / short equity
Bonds
- End-2010 10-year Treasury yield 2.50% - Move down the curve and the higher yields in investment grade and select HY
Cash
–
with a 0.05% yield, it would take 1367 years to double your money
in cash => 65% in equities and 35% in fixed income and cash (moderate investor)
Commodities
– copper, oil, gold
Reference: 1. A return to normality - 2010 Year Ahead Investment Outlook, Merrill Lynch Wealth Management, January 2010 2. Portfolio Positioning – 2010 Mid Year Outlook, Merrill Lynch Wealth Management , July 2010 3. The RIC Report: Japanification & bull markets BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, 10 August 2010
24 Past performance is not indicative of future performance
Tail Risks ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? USD100/bl oil and a surge in inflation (will complicate the financing of the US budget deficit) = jump in US Treasury yields Deflation – premature exit of policy stimuli A double dip in growth (driven by policy mistakes in either US, UK & Europe) An asset price bubble in China (combined with refusal to revalue exchange rate, it may fuel liquidity-driven speculation) Protectionism and a US dollar crisis A debt default in Japan A stronger recovery in US housing and the US consumer The surprise is no surprise
25 Reference: 1. The RIC Report: Tails of the unexpected, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, 10 November 2009 2. The RIC Report: Happy birthday, bull market, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, 09 March 2010 3. The RIC Report - From raging bull to sitting bull BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, 13 April 2010
Past performance is not indicative of future performance
BofA Merrill Lynch Global Economic Forecasts
* Annual averages. The HICP measure of inflation is used for Euro area economies. ** Central bank target rate, year-end, where available, short-term rates elsewhere. Forecasts and current rates as of 08/11/2010, 02:30 EST *** Year end forecast. Spot rates as at 11th August 10. The left of the currency pair is the denominator of the exchange rate. ? US short term rate forecast for 2008, 2009 and 2010 year end is 0-0.25%. Midpoint used in table above for global and regional aggregation purposes. Source: BofA Merrill Lynch iQ database
26 Past performance is not indicative of future performance
US Fed Funds and Treasury yields forecasts
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
US Treasury Yield Curve (as of 11 August 2010)
Source: Bloomberg
27 Reference: 1. Interest Rate Committee Forecast BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, 16 August 2010
Past performance is not indicative of future performance
BofA Merrill Lynch Commodity Price Forecasts
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch
Reference 1. Global Metals Weekly: Setting average gold price forecast in line with target, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, 21 June 2010 2. Global Energy Weekly: Lowering our 2H10 crude oil price forecasts, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, 24 May 2010 3. Commodity Strategist: 2010 Commodity Outlook, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, 09 December 2009 4. Global Energy Weekly: Lowering our 2010 US nat gas forecast on rising shale output, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, 15 March 2010
28 Past performance is not indicative of future performance
Important information This is not a research report, and has been prepared by Global Wealth Management for the benefit of its clients, without input or review by BofA Merrill Lynch Research. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or any options, futures or other derivatives related to such securities. Recipients should read the full research report referenced in this presentation. This presentation has been prepared for a general audience and is given for general information only. Merrill Lynch makes no representation and assumes no responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or completeness of, or any errors or omissions in, any information contained herein. In providing this presentation Merrill Lynch is not giving investment advice. This presentation is not intended to be and does not constitute an invitation by Merrill Lynch for applications to engage in any investment activity or product mentioned and is provided as information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this presentation. Participants should seek advice regarding the appropriateness of engaging in any securities or investment strategies and products discussed in this presentation and should understand that statements regarding future prospects of products may not be realised. Accordingly persons interested in obtaining further information should take into account their financial circumstances, investment objectives and particular needs. Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security's price or value may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
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